As summer temperatures climb across the U.S., so does the strain on our power grid. Millions rely on air conditioning, refrigeration, and medical devices to stay safe during extreme heat. But what happens if the grid can’t keep up? According to NERC (North American Electric Reliability Corporation), more states than ever face a real risk of blackouts during summer 2025. While we all hope for a smooth summer, the reality is that our electrical infrastructure is aging and more vulnerable to extreme weather than many people realize. For those of you who like to stay ahead of the curve – whether you’re a full-fledged prepper or just someone who values self-reliance – understanding these risks is the first step to staying safe and comfortable if the power goes out.
What is NERC And How Trustworthy are Them?
NERC is a nonprofit group responsible for keeping the bulk power grid across North America running smoothly. At least in theory. Like any institution tied to government oversight, NERC isn’t perfect. So, when you ask, “Should I trust NERC?” the only honest answer is: it depends.
That said, to give credit where it’s due, they’ve managed to sound the alarm on big problems before they hit. Over the years, they’ve pointed out vulnerabilities that ended up leading to major blackouts. One clear example: back in February 2021, Texas was hammered by a brutal winter storm that left millions freezing in the dark. NERC had actually flagged this risk in previous reliability reports, warning about cold-weather weaknesses in the grid.
So, while they have their flaws and you should always take any official report with a grain of salt, it’s still worth paying attention when they tell you the grid might not hold up. Because when they do get it right, it’s usually a sign you should start double-checking your own preps.
What Does NERC’s 2025 Summer Reliability Assessment Say?
While the U.S. grid has faced summer challenges before, 2025 stands out for several reasons. According to the NERC’s 2025 Summer Reliability Assessment, the nation is heading into the hottest months with a unique combination of stressors.
Electricity demand has climbed sharply. NERC projects a 10 GW (gigawatts) increase in peak demand compared to last summer. That’s more than double the increase seen in 2024. This surge is fueled by growing data center activity (especially in states like Texas and Illinois), electrification trends (more electric vehicles, more electric heating and cooling), and industrial expansion.
At the same time, many older, dispatchable power plants, especially coal and natural gas, have been retired or placed on standby. Just this year, over 7.4 GW of reliable generation capacity has been retired or sidelined, creating tighter supply margins across multiple regions.
Adding to the strain is a heavier reliance on renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar. While wind and solar are essential for a cleaner future, they depend heavily on weather. During heatwaves, when winds calm and the sun sets just as air conditioning demand peaks, renewable output can drop off, leaving the grid scrambling...
Finally, aging infrastructure and global supply chain constraints have made it difficult to replace or repair critical equipment quickly. Distribution transformers, for example, are in short supply nationwide, and labor shortages persist in many utility service areas.
In short, while the grid is designed to handle expected peaks, it has less margin to absorb surprises. For those living in higher-risk states, this summer may bring more than just higher electric bills. It could mean real interruptions to daily life if the grid falters.
States Most at Risk of Blackouts in 2025
Based on the latest summer reliability report from NERC and regional grid operators, about 20 states across the U.S. are facing the highest risk of power shortages and rolling blackouts this summer. If you live in one of these states, it’s time to take a hard look at your backup plans, before the lights go out.
Most of these states fall under the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), the Southwest Power Pool (SPP), and large parts of Texas covered by ERCOT.
Here’s the list of states most at risk:
- Arkansas
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kentucky
- Louisiana
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Mississippi
- Missouri
- Montana
- North Dakota
- South Dakota
- Wisconsin
- Texas
- Kansas
- Nebraska
- New Mexico
- Oklahoma
- Wyoming
What You Need to Know
In the Midwest, states like Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota are in the danger zone thanks to a fragile energy mix. Many coal and natural gas plants have been retired, leaving these areas heavily reliant on wind and solar. But when the wind stops blowing and the sun hides, the grid struggles.
The Southwest Power Pool states, including Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma, aren’t in much better shape. These regions face soaring summer demand paired with unpredictable wind generation. When a heat wave hits and turbines sit idle, entire communities can go dark in hours.
A Warning for Preppers Living in Other States
The “20 states at risk” figure isn’t from a single official list. It’s a combined snapshot from two major regional grids: MISO and SPP. NERC doesn’t spell out exactly 20 states on a red flag list. This combined number helps us see where the most strain is, but it’s not a perfect count.
Why does this matter? Because the grid is a complex web, and risks don’t respect state lines perfectly. Some states show up on one list but not the other. By combining them, we get a clearer picture. But it also means the number “20” is more of a practical summary than a strict official count.
Therefore, even if you don’t see your state on this high-risk list, don’t let your guard down. All it takes is one intense heat wave, flash floods (see Texas) or an unexpected plant failure to send any grid spiraling. Just because your area isn’t marked bright red on a map today doesn’t mean you’re safe tomorrow.
This is why so many experienced preppers insist on staying ahead of the curve. When the grid buckles, it’s not just about comfort. It’s about keeping your family safe, your food from spoiling, and your home secure when everyone else is panicking.
Recent Outages Confirm the Threat of Blackouts 2025
We’ve already seen plenty of blackouts hit in summer 2025, proving just how shaky and overworked our power grid really is. On June 18, severe storms and tornadoes ripped through Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, leaving nearly 1.2 million people powerless. Jacksonville, Illinois, took a hard blow. Over 11,000 folks were left in the dark overnight, with no clue when the lights would come back.
And then there’s Texas – a prepper’s wake-up call. The grid, run by ERCOT, has been a mess for years, and 2025’s proving it again. February’s cold snap left thousands in the dark, but July’s floods were a gut punch. On July 4, Central Texas got slammed. Kerr County alone saw over 2,700 homes lose power when Tropical Storm Barry’s 5–11 inches of rain tore through, snapping power lines and flooding roads. Crews couldn’t even reach some spots, leaving folks without electricity for days in the heat.
Also, as of July 10, outages are still ongoing in places like North Carolina (more than 10,000 customers affected), Virginia (about 10,000), California (6,800), Pennsylvania (5,700), and Ohio (5,200). These numbers can shift up or down, depending on how quickly problems get fixed and whether new grid failures pop up.
All of these aren’t just freak incidents. They’re loud, flashing warnings that our aging grid is buckling under the weight of extreme weather and skyrocketing demand. If you’re paying attention, you know these aren’t problems you can ignore and hope will fix themselves. You either prepare now, or risk being left in the dark when it matters most.
What Can You Do to Prepare?
When it comes to blackouts, waiting until the lights go out is the worst possible plan. Real preparation means acting early, so you aren’t scrambling at the last second. Also, it’s important to keep in mind that you don’t know for how long the power will be out. Best case: hours. Worst case: weeks. Here’s a closer look at how you can stay ahead of the next grid failure.
Stay Informed
Knowledge is your first line of defense. Sign up for local power outage alerts from your utility company or local emergency management agency. Check updates from your regional grid operator regularly. You can also monitor real-time outage maps to see problems developing in your area before they hit your neighborhood. Staying aware gives you valuable time to charge devices, fill water containers, and get last-minute supplies before everyone rushes to the store.
Stock Up on Basic Supplies
When the power goes out, the last place you want to be is stuck in a crowded store fighting over the last gallon of water. Keep at least a two-week supply of non-perishable and long-lasting food, medications, and hygiene items on hand. Think through what you’d need if you couldn’t leave home for a while: candles or lanterns, manual can openers, extra fuel, and even entertainment like books or cards to keep morale up.
The Special Case of Water
There’s also the special case of water. In the U.S., the public water supply is largely tied to the power grid. That means in many areas, if the power goes down, so does your access to water, or at the very least, your access to (relative) safe, filtered water.
Picture this: a brutal heatwave, no way to cool your home, and no running water… God forbid.
So, what can you do? The answer is simple: build up a water stockpile or, even better, break your dependence on the grid altogether. Here are two solid options I highly recommend:
How does generating 50 gallons of clean water per day completely off-grid sound? If it sounds good to you, check out this backpack-sized water generator. It’s used by military forces around the world, even in harsh desert conditions. It’s affordable, easy to set up, and incredibly efficient. Oh, and it doesn’t need anything except… thin air!
If you’re looking for long-term water independence, you should also take a serious look at The Water Freedom System. This system is also trusted by militaries in the U.S., Israel, India, and the UK. It’s definitely worth a shot. Check it out here.
Reduce Your Energy Use
You can help prevent a blackout, and protect your own home, by lowering your usage during peak hours (usually in the afternoon and early evening). Run big appliances like dishwashers and washing machines overnight, set your AC a few degrees higher, and turn off lights or electronics you don’t need. Not only does this help the grid, but it may also save you money on your bill.
Another smart approach is to reduce your dependence on the grid as much as possible. And you can do this in more ways than just buying a backup generator. For example, you can take a page out of the Amish playbook. Instead of relying on electric appliances, you can swap out your most essential tools and household systems for air-powered tools that keep you self-sufficient even when the grid is down.
Sure, this solution might sound a bit complex at first, but it’s surprisingly cheap and easy to put into practice. Even if you’re not ready to completely give up modern comforts, it’s worth learning these methods so you’re prepared if a major power crisis hits.
Here are a few examples you might want to consider:
- Amish fridge that doesn’t need electricity
- DIY Off-Grid Water Filter
- Amish AC unit that cools your house without electricity
Invest in Backup Power
A reliable backup power source can be a true lifesaver. Depending on your budget and needs, this could be a portable generator, a whole-house standby generator, or even solar panels with battery storage. At the very least, consider smaller backup batteries for essential electronics and medical devices. Make sure to test your equipment ahead of time. A generator that won’t start during an emergency is about as useful as a rock.
Protect Your Electronics
Power outages often come with voltage spikes when the grid flickers back on. These surges can fry your electronics in an instant. Use surge protectors for important appliances and devices, and consider uninterruptible power supplies (UPS) for computers and sensitive medical equipment. It’s a relatively inexpensive way to save thousands of dollars and avoid losing valuable data or equipment.
Final Thoughts
The warnings about Blackouts 2025 across these states are real and backed by data. The severity depends on weather and grid stress, but recent outages prove these aren’t just hypothetical scenarios.
This isn’t about panic, but about practical preparedness. Taking steps now to protect your family and your home means when the next heatwave or storm hits, you won’t be caught off guard. After all, prepping is all about peace of mind.
The floods of December 2015 pushed this 45-year-old professor from Memphis, Tennessee to develop an Easy DIY Power Plan that helps you cut your bills and become far less dependent on the grid. Have a look at it!
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I Lived Without Electricity For A Week. Here’s What Happened
I do not understand why So. and No. Dakota, Wyoming, Montana, Iowa they all have the lease amount of people, plus why Ca., and Texas will not go out??
Great question! It can definitely seem confusing at first. Let’s break it down a bit.
States like North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana, and Iowa do have smaller populations, but they’re still at high risk because of how their power grids are set up. Many of these states rely heavily on wind power and have fewer backup power plants like coal or gas.
When the wind isn’t blowing (which often happens during summer heat waves), they can’t make up the difference easily, no matter how few people live there.
Texas is at high risk too, as pointed in the article and shown by current events, unfortunately.
As per California, of course it does face serious blackout threats, but in this specific 2025 NERC assessment, the immediate summer risk was higher in Midwest and Central states. California has big vulnerabilities too (like wildfires, aging infrastructure), and rolling blackouts can still happen, but their summer grid balance this year looks a bit more stable so far.
In short, risk is about how fragile the grid is, how dependent they are on certain energy sources, and whether they have enough backup when demand spikes.
Thanks for bringing this up! It’s an important point for everyone to understand! Stay safe!
Why do you think they are not included ? It’s all by design, it’s all planned that way.
Solar & wind are just frauds at this point. Go on YouTube and lookup it up. Solar is not producing what it should & neither is wind centralized the worst and home units not much better due to a lack of testing & factual engineering reports, if the report is not notarized with penalties for making false claims it is not worth bothering with, and it’s the reason you can not find any wind or solar company that offers it.
Is there anywhere to buy one of these water freedom systems?
The Grid is not the actual physical infrastructure, power plants, transmission lines, etc,the Grid is actually the complex highly computerized control system that manages the flow of power from thousands of power sources to millions of power consumers. Supply and demand are constantly shifting and if one part of the complex infrastructure gets too much or too little electricity physical damage will result. The great Texas Winter Power Failure was not a grid problem but an unexpected and complex surge in demand along with major unexpected loss of supply. The system became so chaotic the grid operator, ERCOT, had to shut everything down in a controlled manner or the entire computerized control system would have destroyed itself. No one knows how long it takes to rebuild and restart after a control grid collapse, months at least. ERCOT was within minutes of total collapse when they shut it down. This is a terrifying SHTF scenario that goes far beyond the inconvenience of localized storm damage.
Texas is finally spending the money for more stability by building some big new gas fired power plants and building more battery storage than anyone but China to take advantage of intermittent wind and solar. Not unusual at night in Texas for up to 30% of electricity to come from batteries.